citypaper: archives

Just Reduced
Saying goodbye to D.C.'s real-estate bubble

Cover Story

I Wouldn’t Want to Speculate

No one agrees on what caused the boom or when it started or stopped.

Here’s the sort of difference a year makes: On Nov. 20, 1998, the property at 1731 P St. NW, a little more than a block from Dupont Circle, sold for $595,000. On Nov. 22, 1999, it sold again—this time for $800,000.

The 1731 P flip suggested that something was changing in a neighborhood that had been known just a few years earlier for the broken auto glass that smash-and-grab perps often left on the sidewalks. Was this the first sale of the boom? Should the D.C. Chamber of Commerce place a plaque at 1731 P, commemorating it as the point of departure for the bonanza that fattened real-estate agents and work-averse speculators?

It doesn’t quite work that way. Depending on which real-estate agent or economist you talk to, the boom’s kickoff started as early as 1997 or as late as 2002. Cathie Gill, who runs an eponymous real-estate agency, says the madness didn’t really start until the end of that span. In 2002, says Gill, “We’d get multiple offers, people calling, saying, ‘Please get me a home.’ We’d bring on a house at $595,000 and sell it at $750,000 in 72 hours.”

Nor do experts agree on the causes of the boom. Oft-quoted economist Stephen Fuller, a professor at George Mason University, suggests that hard times fueled the run-up. “The recession that began in early 2000 gave people no other alternative financial investments aside from housing,” he says. “People didn’t trust the stock market or 401(k)s. That touched off the investment dimension of housing.”... Continued

Issue of Feb. 10 - 16, 2006

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